Tough question that may be impossible to answer, but Alicia Garcia-Herrero recently offered some possibilities.
Alicia García Herrero is the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. She also serves as Senior Fellow at the Brussels-based European think-tank BRUEGEL and a non-resident Senior Follow at the East Asian Institute (EAI) of the National University Singapore (NUS). Alicia is also Adjunct Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Finally, Alicia is a Member of the Council of Advisors on Economic Affairs to the Spanish Government and an advisor to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s research arm (HKIMR) among other advisory and teaching positions.
Alicia is very active in international media (BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC and CNN) as well as social media (LinkedIn and Twitter). As a recognition, Alicia was included in the TOP Voices in Economy and Finance by LinkedIn in 2017 and #6 Top Social Media leader by Refinitiv in 2020.
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Perhaps the biggest known unknown in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is China’s role. But we have some clues: during the Beijing Olympics, the Chinese and Russian presidents issued a communique saying their country’s relationship has “no limits.”
What does that actually mean? How far will China go to keep Russian troops in the field? Promises aside, are there in fact limits?
Tough questions that are very difficult, maybe impossible to answer, but our guest on this episode of New Thinking For a New World recently offered some possibilities in Can China Bail Out Putin? Alicia Garcia-Herrero is a senior fellow at the European think-tank BRUEGEL, as well as the chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, a French investment bank.
What It Will Take for Ukraine to Win the War?
The peace process can only move forward if America and Europe work together. If America spurn this idea, it will be 10 times worse than the US Rejection of the Kyoto treaty for America’s image.
In my views as we noted earlier the late Mwl Julius Nyerere, Former President of Tanzania and Co-Chairman of the United Nations in Third – World – Developing Countries, Mwl Nyerere always put forward the Third World Altitude practice by the so cold super powers notably the United States and Russia
China has already changed the global order. Western leaders are blinded by history and arrogance and haven’t realized it yet. If you’ve read Allison’s “Thucydides Trap”, then you might ask a different question. Given that every change in world power was precipitate by a world war between the old world leader and the emerging leader that suddenly has more real power, what were China’s option?
(1) Do nothing. Wait for the US and EU powers to continue their decline as China builds it base using South America and Africa, not at oppressors but as an economic ‘friend’.
(2) Start a war. Unwise and costly
(3) Support a war between two former world leaders.
In my opinion, China, Africa, and every other place which endured US occupation, discrimination, and enslavement have no incentive to align with America or its allies. China is putting China first.